Yield Spreads Suggest the Risk Isn’t Over Yet
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and...
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and...
The real drivers of Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda extend far beyond trade policy. In this analysis, I examine how a new world order is taking shape—driven by crypto, AI, energy, and the...
Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire...
Electronic tariffs in the spotlight, risk appetite gets a small boost Trump could dampen sentiment with fresh tariff decisions US equities record best weekly performance since 2022 Dollar’s...
Gold Continues Climbing Higher The gold (XAU/USD) price rose by 1.96% on Friday as the US dollar (USD) continued to decline due to recession fears triggered by the escalating US-China trade...
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recession dates (1990M01-2025M03): Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), and...
Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures The S&P 500 Emini bulls need strong follow-through buying following to increase the odds of testing the 20-week EMA. The bears want the pullback to be...
US dollar weakened amid market concerns, hitting 2022 lows. Tariff changes and global economic fears drive market volatility. Gold prices surge, while oil faces losses due to supply and demand...
The indexes continue to be news-driven, reflected in the fear index (VIX) and Gold. Overall, neutral short term to risk-off intermediate to longer term. Risk On Volume patterns improved this week,...
The misinformation age has gone from bad to worse, which means the onus is on all of us to read reports thoroughly, not just the headlines and what is being talked about on social media platforms. In...