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Market Analysis

  • May 22, 2025

Eurozone PMI Falls in May Amid Service Sector Weakness

The composite PMI declined from 50.4 to 49.5 in May, indicating that the eurozone is falling back into stagnation. It's worrisome that the main culprit is the service sector, which has long been the...

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  • May 22, 2025

Gold Prices Rise Amid Cautious Fed and Middle East Turmoil

Gold Rises on Demand for Safe-Haven Assets The gold (XAU/USD) price rose by 0.77% on Wednesday amid growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook. Investor risk appetite diminished after a proposed US...

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Stocks Overvalued, Bonds Undervalued: Valuation Indicators Point to Market Imbalan
  • May 21, 2025

Stocks Overvalued, Bonds Undervalued: Valuation Indicators Point to Market Imbalan

Stocks are expensive, bonds are cheap... Following the tariff tantrum, turnaround stocks are up and bonds are down — and we’re right back to stocks being expensive (+bonds cheap) again. Charts like...

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Is the US Dollar Losing Its Safe Haven Edge Too Fast?
  • May 21, 2025

Is the US Dollar Losing Its Safe Haven Edge Too Fast?

Consider the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar index (DXY) over the past six months: Figure 1: DXY (blue, left scale), and 10-year Treasury yield, % (green, right scale). Red line at “Liberation...

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Gold, Bitcoin Forecast: Fiat Alternatives Rally on Trump Budget Drama
  • May 21, 2025

Gold, Bitcoin Forecast: Fiat Alternatives Rally on Trump Budget Drama

Gold, Bitcoin Key Points Concerns about the rising US debt and prospects of continued large deficits are intensifying, driving yields, gold, and bitcoin higher. Gold has little in the way of...

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  • May 21, 2025

US Dollar Strengthens Against USD/JPY on Rising US Yields

The USD/JPY currency pair has emerged as one of the most notable movers in the forex market, experiencing robust bullish momentum amid rising US Treasury yields and Japan's continued commitment to...

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S&P 500: Are Surging Long-Term Yields Signaling Trouble Ahead?
  • May 21, 2025

S&P 500: Are Surging Long-Term Yields Signaling Trouble Ahead?

The S&P 500 fell sharply yesterday, dropping by around 1.6%, following a weak 20-year Treasury auction, which sent bond yields soaring. None of this should have been a surprise, as I highlighted...

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Gold Rally Faces First Test: Can the $3,300 Handle Hold Amid Geopolitical Strain?
  • May 21, 2025

Gold Rally Faces First Test: Can the $3,300 Handle Hold Amid Geopolitical Strain?

Gold prices have reclaimed the $3300/oz handle but there are growing signs of exhaustion as the precious metal looks to consolidate gains. The rally has been spurred on by US Dollar weakness while...

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Stocks Send a Subtle Clue to US Dollar and Gold Traders
  • May 21, 2025

Stocks Send a Subtle Clue to US Dollar and Gold Traders

Almost there. At least that’s what it seems like based on today’s charts. There is some action in all of them, but the two ones provide key information: the S&P 500 Index futures chart and the...

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  • May 21, 2025

Trump’s Tax and Tariff Plans Losing Battle With Bond and Currency Markets

Even though the business press likes to obsess over the ponies stocks, as we saw with Trump’s tariff climbdown, it’s the bond markets that hold the whip hand. Yes, we understand full well that...

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Recent Posts

  • S&P 500 Hovers Near Resistance With PPI Set to Test Market Direction
    June 11, 2025
  • Gold’s Corrective Phase Could Be Over as Uptrend Resumes
    June 11, 2025
  • CPI Miss Sends US Dollar Lower as Stocks Lose Momentum Ahead of PPI
    June 11, 2025
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