Upside Down CAPM and the Trump Recession
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a simple heuristic for thinking about market returns. Basically, the idea is that the main risk that you can’t diversify away from is collective business...
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a simple heuristic for thinking about market returns. Basically, the idea is that the main risk that you can’t diversify away from is collective business...
Things are getting ugly, especially in rates and FX. Significant decoupling is occurring, indicating a potentially massive flight out of the U.S. and severe liquidity constraints now hitting the...
The announcement of higher-than-anticipated tariffs during President Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” last week rattled markets, briefly pushing U.S. equities into a bear market —...
Gold looks fantastic! The fabulous short-term buy and sell zones chart for gold. We bought the approach to the $2956 horizontal support and resistance (HSR) zone yesterday, and the market is...
The first quarter of 2025 has been a particularly turbulent one for the financial markets: US equities had their worst relative performance in 23 years, Chinese markets rebounded, gold reached new...
By Mike Maharrey There is growing evidence that Americans may be edging close to the credit limit. That’s bad news for an economy that has run on credit cards for the last few years and adds to...
That is the billion-dollar question investors now face. One gauge to help us answer the question is corporate bond yield spreads. When the yield differential between corporate bond yields and...
The stock market is not thinking; it is only feeling, and this is when savvy investors can make the most returns for the months to come in their portfolios. Considering that the volatility breakout...
Pursuing a structual, sudden change in US trade policy is one thing. That alone is disruptive. Even if it’s a net plus in the longer term (a debatable proposition), the current burden that’s weighing...
Tariff-pause headlines slow down Wall Street’s bloodbath White House denies the reports, Trump threatens China Safe havens pull back on negotiation hopes, but still near their highs Oil tumbles on...