Futures lower, CPI ahead, U.S. to cut "de minimis" levies - what's...

  • May 12, 2025

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures edge lower, with investors looking ahead to the unveiling of fresh inflation data and assessing a trade agreement between the U.S. and China. April’s consumer price index reading comes as analysts are attempting to gauge the impact of steep U.S. tariffs on inflation, which could factor into how the Federal Reserve gauges its future monetary policy path. Elsewhere, the White House moves to cut a levy on lower-value items, while China reportedly removes a ban on deliveries from U.S. planemaker Boeing (NYSE: BA ).

1. Futures inch down

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Tuesday after equities surged in the prior session on a temporary pause and lowering of punishing tariffs between the U.S. and China.

By 03:33 ET (07:33 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 114 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had fallen by 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had decreased by 110 points, or 0.5%.

The main averages on Wall Street soared on Monday, fueled by optimism around a relative trade truce between the world’s two largest economies. Washington agreed to substantially cut its elevated tariffs on Beijing to 30%, after they were raised to at least 145% by President Donald Trump. China, meanwhile, said it would slash its levies to 10% from a retaliatory level of 125%.

Both countries also said they would suspend the tariffs for 90 days.

The decisions helped to settle ongoing jitters among many investors, who had flagged worries that the sky-high tariffs would push up inflation and weigh on broader economic activity. Stocks in a range of sectors, including retail apparel and luxury goods, gained on hopes that the impact from the trade tensions will not be as damaging as initially feared.

Still, some analysts noted that, even after the announcement, tariffs will remain above where they were at the beginning of Trump’s presidency.

2. CPI ahead

Highlighting the economic calendar on Tuesday will be the release of the monthly U.S. inflation figures.

Economists anticipate that consumer prices in the world’s biggest economy grew by 2.4% in the 12 months to April, matching the prior reading. Month-on-month, the headline consumer price index is seen at 0.3%, compared with a decline of 0.1% in March.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, is tipped to be at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% annually.

The figures will likely play into how markets perceive the path ahead for Federal Reserve interest rates. The Fed, which is tasked partly with stabilizing inflation at around 2% year-on-year, has indicated that it will take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate decisions. Chair Jerome Powell suggested last week that monetary policy is well-calibrated at the current moment because the wider economy is showing signs of resilience despite pressures from Trump’s tariff agenda.

However, the Fed, which left rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% last week, has warned that risks to inflation and unemployment are rising.

3. U.S. to cut "de minimis" exception

The U.S. will also bring down tariffs on lower-value products imported from China, further cooling a trade spat with Beijing.

A White House executive order on Monday said levies on shipments valued at up to $800 and delivered via postal services from China will be slashed to 54% from May 14. A flat fee of $100 will be in effect as well.

These items were previously able to enter the United States with no duties and limited inspections under what was known as the "de minimis" exception. More than 90% of packages entering the U.S. have used this rule in recent years, with roughly 60% of those coming from China.

The Trump administration moved to end this exemption in February, placing a tariff of 120% on these goods and a flat fee of $200. The changes, which Washington said were necessary to combat exploitation by bargain e-commerce retailers like Shein and Temu and help stem the flow of the illegal drug fentanyl into the U.S., were due to come into force by June.

4. China removes ban on Boeing deliveries - Bloomberg

China has removed a month-long ban preventing local airlines from taking delivery of Boeing planes, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, in another possible easing of the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Government officials have begun instructing local carriers and government agencies this week that deliveries from the U.S. planemaker can resume, the Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The move brings some relief to Boeing, after reports in April showed China had ordered all its airlines to halt plane deliveries from the U.S. jetmaker. Boeing was also reportedly forced to fly back some of its jets from China after companies in the company refused to take deliveries.

Boeing was expected to seek alternative customers in Asia and Europe after the block on deliveries.

Shares in Boeing were slightly higher in premarket U.S. trading.

5. Oil steadies

Oil prices steadied Tuesday near a two-week high, as traders digested recent announcements around the China-U.S. trade deal.

At 03:30 ET, Brent futures gained 0.1% to $65.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.2% to $62.08 a barrel.

Both contracts rose by about 1.5% on Monday, adding to the previous week’s gains and notching their highest settlements since April 28.

Despite the ratcheting down in tensions between Washington and Beijing, plenty of uncertainty still exists as the underlying factors that led to the dispute remain, including the U.S. trade deficit with China.