It’s still all about trade but there are a few other things to watch this week. Wednesday: Retail sales (+1.4% expected) It’s been a tough year for consumer spending but especially retail sales....
So, Trump backed off a little, while China discretely flexed its muscles by halting exports of its rare earth minerals. The latter didn’t get enough media attention, but in my view, this likely ends...
Each week, we take you through the last seven days in seven charts. 1. Literally Off the Chart… Under the new Trump administration, the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to...
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and...
The real drivers of Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda extend far beyond trade policy. In this analysis, I examine how a new world order is taking shape—driven by crypto, AI, energy, and the...
Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire...
Electronic tariffs in the spotlight, risk appetite gets a small boost Trump could dampen sentiment with fresh tariff decisions US equities record best weekly performance since 2022 Dollar’s...
Gold Continues Climbing Higher The gold (XAU/USD) price rose by 1.96% on Friday as the US dollar (USD) continued to decline due to recession fears triggered by the escalating US-China trade...
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recession dates (1990M01-2025M03): Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), and...
Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures The S&P 500 Emini bulls need strong follow-through buying following to increase the odds of testing the 20-week EMA. The bears want the pullback to be...