The trading week from July 7 to 13 ended with several notable moves in global financial markets:

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) impressed by breaking above resistance at $112,000 and setting a new all-time high of $122,600.
• The USD Index (DXY) consolidated around its technical resistance zone 97.6 – 97.9, still recording a slight gain against the euro thanks to strong US economic data.
• Gold ( XAU/USD ) edged higher, ending the week at $3,370, reflecting cautious sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainties.
• Oil (USOIL/USD) rose slightly from $65.4 to $67.4, driven by expectations of higher summer demand, falling inventories, and tensions in the Middle East.

Entering the new trading week (July 14 to 20), global markets are bracing for key economic data releases and political events that could shape upcoming trends.

The main focus this week will be the US CPI inflation data, along with “Crypto Week” in the US House of Representatives, which is expected to create significant volatility for US Dollar and Bitcoin, while gold and oil may trade sideways.

USD – Possible Rebound

Main scenario - USD strengthens with supporting factors:

• CPI (released July 15): If the data is higher than forecast, the Fed is likely to keep rates high for longer, making the USD more attractive to global investors → USD gains.
• Retail Sales (released July 17): If the data is stronger than expected, it will confirm robust US consumer spending → The Fed will keep rates high for longer (or at least delay rate cuts) to control inflation → USD strengthens.
• Technical analysis: DXY is consolidating just below resistance at 97.9. Continuous tests of this level could lead to a strong breakout if CPI beats expectations.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Uptrend May Continue

• Normally, BTC faces pressure when USD strengthens. However, this week has a unique catalyst – Crypto Week (July 14–18), where the US House will review CLARITY, GENIUS, and Anti-CBDC acts aiming to make the US the global crypto hub, triggering strong FOMO sentiment.
• BTC remains in an upward channel, though RSI shows overbought signals. The $112,000 zone is key support to watch for possible pullbacks or short-term consolidation. If price bounces here, the uptrend could continue.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Likely to Trade Sideways

• Gold is priced in USD, so a stronger USD often puts downward pressure on gold prices.
• While escalating wars usually support gold as a safe haven, this week’s geopolitical risks are not expected to drive gold prices significantly higher. Thus, gold may remain range-bound.
• Technical analysis: Gold is trading within a medium-term ascending triangle pattern. Nearby support is at $3,300, while nearby resistance is at $3,450. Gold is likely to trade sideways in a narrow range, with a slight downside bias if the USD strengthens.

Oil (USOIL/USD) – Likely to Trade Sideways With a Slight Bullish Bias

• A stronger USD usually limits oil price gains as it makes oil more expensive for buyers.
• However, oil is also supported by:
• Falling US crude inventories last week
• Concerns over rising Israel–Hezbollah tensions, though no direct supply impact yet.
• Technical analysis: Oil is showing a weak recovery, approaching resistance at $68.3. Nearby support is at $63.9, while major resistance is at $77.2. Oil is expected to trade sideways with a slight bullish bias, unless unexpected geopolitical news triggers strong buying momentum.

Key Points for Traders

• Main scenario: USD strengthens if CPI shows higher inflation and Retail Sales confirm solid consumer spending. Gold and oil may face slight pressure and trade sideways, while BTC could continue its uptrend or consolidate due to Crypto Week-driven FOMO.
• Alternative scenario: If USD weakens, BTC, gold, and oil could all surge.