Time to Recalibrate Our 3 Market Scenarios?
We regularly assess the subjective probabilities that we assign to our three scenarios: the Roaring 2020s (55%), the Meltup 1990s (25%), and the Stagflationary 1970s (20%). The last scenario, with...
We regularly assess the subjective probabilities that we assign to our three scenarios: the Roaring 2020s (55%), the Meltup 1990s (25%), and the Stagflationary 1970s (20%). The last scenario, with...
Gold Continues Moving Upwards The gold (XAU/USD) price rose by 0.64% on Friday as the US dollar (USD) weakened after US President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, while the uncertainty...
The pause in financial conditions tightening helped stocks rally. Semiconductors’ market cap weighting reached an all-time high. Mag7 corporate bond yields are almost on par with...
It’s been a volatile start to the year, with an abundance of expectations placed on what the new administration would do in its first weeks, days, and even hours of power. We’re off! This year, our...
US equities markets rose due to President Trump’s pro-business policies and decision to not impose tariffs on major trading partners yet. The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.5%, the highest since...
Bitcoin continues its post-election run with the December pullback coming to an end. The emergence from a picture-perfect cup-and-handle pattern opens up 130K as an upside - and very reachable -...
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation....
Markets had a bit of a roller coaster ride this week thanks to the incoming Trump administration in the US. Markets got some of what they expected while they also received a fair amount of shocks to...
The past year brought once again exceptional returns to U.S. large cap stocks while most bond classes and global stocks had a lackluster year. With an average post WWII annual return of +10.1%, the...
Three central bank decisions awaited as tariff reality sets in. Fed set to go on pause, ECB and BoC to likely cut again. But US GDP and PCE inflation could steal the limelight. Australian CPI and...