We keep hearing that the plunge in consumer sentiment isn't showing up in the economic data yet. Well, there is one data point that is feeling the effects, and it turns out its a pretty important...
The markets are relatively calm today, but don’t let that fool you. They are about to MOVE. There are multiple clues as for the way in which the markets are likely to move next, and I’m going to...
Asian markets started the week calmly, with investors waiting for updates on US trade talks and possible new stimulus measures from China before making big moves. A regional index gained 0.6%, while...
Gold Retreats From Its Highs Gold (XAU/USD) broke a record high of $3,500 last week. However, due to a stronger US dollar (USD) and easing tensions between the US and China, it lost all the gains and...
Risk appetite improves, but outlook remains clouded Tariffs in the spotlight as Trump awaits China’s capitulation A quiet start to the week ahead of a very busy data calendar Loonie might not enjoy...
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%. Figure 1: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on (final) Michigan Sentiment (blue), and on (final) Michigan...
This could be a pivotal week in the markets. We get a ton of key economic data, over 1/3rd of S&P 500 companies will report earnings, and the index is pinned at or near key resistance levels that...
Market Finds Some Hope Last week, we discussed the issue with the spat between President Trump and the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. As noted then: “While the markets await the next...
Global stocks saw a positive week due to easing US-China trade war concerns, despite mixed messages from President Trump. Gold experienced a decline as safe haven flows decreased, while Bitcoin saw...
Investors are still behaving as if the world has not changed at all when, in fact, everything has changed. “Globalization, rising trade, and capital liberalization was the dominant geopolitical and...