The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs at its upcoming meeting Sept. and the strength of the job market is likely to be a deciding factor on whether it delivers a quarter-of-a-percentage-point cut or a bigger half-point cut. Below is a sampling of Wall Street banks' forecasts for the August employment report along with their expectations for the size of the Fed's rate cut later this month.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in August, with the unemployment rate forecast to have dropped to 4.2%, which would offer more assurance that an orderly labor market slowdown remained intact and cement expectations of a quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday would add to solid consumer spending in dispelling financial market fears of a recession, which were stoked by a rise in the jobless rate to a near three-year high of 4.3% in July. The fourth straight monthly increase in the unemployment rate put a 50 basis point rate cut on the table.
Friday's monthly jobs report will likely mark a pivotal moment for the economy and the Federal Reserve. If it shows that hiring was weak in August and that the unemployment rate rose — similar to the unexpectedly soft figures for July — it would heighten worries that the job market is stumbling. The Fed might then seek to deliver a stimulus with a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of a half-percentage point when it meets later this month.
Argentina's monthly inflation rate stood at 3.9% in August and is expected to close the year at an annualized rate of nearly 123%, according to analysts surveyed by the central bank in a poll published on Thursday. Prices are seen rising by 3.5% in September, according to the poll, slowing down after a surge that followed deep spending cuts as well as the devaluation of the peso currency enacted by libertarian President Javier Milei in a bid to reduce sky-high inflation.
Former President Donald Trump suggested to business leaders Thursday that his plans to increase tariffs on foreign imports would solve seemingly unrelated challenges such as the rising cost of child care in the U.S. The GOP presidential nominee promised to lead what he called a “national economic renaissance” by increasing tariffs, slashing regulations to boost energy production and drastically cutting government spending as well as corporate taxes for companies that produce in the U.S. Trump was asked at his appearance before the Economic Club of New York about his plans to drive down child care costs to help more women join the workforce.
“We simply have to tell our fellow citizens that we have to do more again,” Deutsche Bank’s Christian Sewing said.
Britain needs an additional one trillion pounds ($1.3 trillion) in investment in the next decade to grow the economy, a report said on Friday. New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he wanted the economy to achieve annual growth of 2.5% when campaigning in the run-up to July 4's election - a rate that Britain has not regularly reached since before the 2008 financial crisis. An annual growth rate of 3% would require extra investment of 100 billion pounds a year in the next 10 years, particularly in energy, housing and venture capital, according to the report from UK financial services lobby group Capital Markets Industry Taskforce.
(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire John Paulson said the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates and expects the central bank to lower them in the months ahead.Most Read from BloombergThe Outsized Cost of Expanding US RoadsWorld's Second-Tallest Tower Tests Malaysia's Appetite for More SkyscrapersMadrid to Ban E-Scooter Rentals, Following Lead Set in ParisHow Air Conditioning Took Over the American OfficeHong Kong’s Arts Hub Turns to Selling Land to Stay AfloatBy the end of next year,
(Bloomberg) -- Airlines and other oil consumers are taking advantage of crude’s slump to the lowest level in a year to buy some protection against a rebound in prices.Most Read from BloombergThe Outsized Cost of Expanding US RoadsHow Air Conditioning Took Over the American OfficeMadrid to Ban E-Scooter Rentals, Following Lead Set in ParisHong Kong’s Arts Hub Turns to Selling Land to Stay AfloatWorld's Second-Tallest Tower Tests Malaysia's Appetite for More SkyscrapersThey are piling in to option
The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was seeking feedback on how it operates its "discount window," which is intended to provide emergency lending to banks in times of stress. The Fed said it wanted comments on various aspects of how banks deal with the window, including the collection of legal documentation, pledging and withdrawing collateral, and extending credit. The solicitation marks the latest effort by the Fed to tweak the discount window, which banks have long resisted utilizing out of concern that it carries a stigma that could undermine stability in times of stress.