Market Analysis

S&P 500 E-mini Outside Bear Bar Pullback

  • May 25, 2025

Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The S&P 500 Emini formed an Emini outside bear bar pullback on the weekly chart. The bulls want any pullback to be weak and sideways. The bears must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-week EMA and the bull trend line to show they are back in control.

S&P 500 Emini Futures

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini Chart S&P 500 E-mini Outside Bear Bar Pullback

  • This week’s Emini candlestick was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
  • Last week, we said traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying to retest the all-time high area, or if the market would start to stall, forming a minor pullback instead.
  • The market traded slightly higher early in the week but lacked follow-through buying, closing lower for the week.
  • The bulls got a strong reversal in a tight bull channel.
  • They see the selloff (Apr 7) forming a major higher low and the market is in a broad bull channel.
  • They hope that the strong selloff has alleviated the prior overbought condition. They want a resumption of the trend.
  • They hope the market has flipped into Always In Long.
  • They want any pullback to be weak and sideways (overlapping candlesticks, doji(s), long tails below candlesticks) and the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior trend’s extreme high (Dec 6).
  • They want the market to form a lower high major trend reversal or a double top with the December 6 high.
  • They must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-week EMA and the bull trend line to show they are back in control.
  • So far, the buying pressure since the April 7 low has been stronger (strong bull bars closing near their highs) than the weaker selling pressure (bear bar with limited follow-through selling).
  • The market likely has flipped into Always In Long.
  • The odds slightly favor the current pullback to be minor, followed by at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the recent leg high (May 19).
  • For now, the market could trade slightly lower. Traders will see if the bears can create a strong follow-through bear bar trading below the 20-week EMA.
  • Or will pullback be shallow, lacking follow-through selling and holding around the 20-week EMA area?