Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip as April Jobs Report Shows Resilient Labor Market

  • May 2, 2025

The February and March jobs numbers were revised down.

The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate stayed the same.

The April jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that 177,000 new jobs were added to the economy last month, which was more than the 133,000 jobs that analysts expected.

The April results were down from March, when, initially, the bureau reported 228,000 new jobs. But that was revised down by 43,000 to 185,000.

Also, the February numbers were revised down for the second time to 102,000. Initially, the BLS reported 151,000 jobs in February, then revised it down to 117,000 in April, and now the February numbers have been revised lower again to 102,000 – all in all, a reduction of 49,000 jobs, nearly one-third.

Including February and March, the jobs numbers have been revised down by 92,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2% in April, which was in line with economists’ estimates. The unemployment figures have remained within the range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.0% for men, 3.7% for women, 12.9% for teenagers. Further, it was 3.8% for Whites, 6.3% for Blacks, 3.0% for Asians, and 5.2% for Hispanics.

The labor force participation rate was 62.6% while the employment-population ratio was 60% — both are little changed little in April. However, the , the number of long-term unemployed — those jobless for 27 weeks or more — rose by 179,000 to 1.7 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.5 percent of all unemployed.

Further, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.7 million.

Health Care, Transportation, and Financials Add Most Job

In April, jobs were trending up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. They were trending lower in federal government employment.

Specifically, health care added 51,000 jobs in April, about the same as the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months. Most of the gains came at hospitals, up 22,000, and ambulatory health care services, up 21,000.

Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000 with 10,000 jobs added in warehousing and storage, 8,000 added in couriers and messengers, and 3,000 added in air transportation. Transportation and warehousing have added an average of 12,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Further, financial activities employment added 14,000 jobs. Since an employment trough in April 2024, the sector has created 103,000 new jobs. Also, employment in social assistance increased by 8,000, but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain of 20,000 over the prior 12 months.

Within government, federal government employment dropped by 9,000 in April. Since January, federal government jobs are down by 26,000. It should be noted that employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed.

Will It Influence Fed?

Among the industries that showed little or no change in April are mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Further, hourly wages for all employees only rose by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $36.06. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have jumped by 3.8 percent. The average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.3 hours.

The state of the jobs market is one part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate when determining rates, along with inflation. The solid jobs report for April is certainly good news for investors who would like to see the Fed lower interest rates.

However, most interest rate traders, almost 99% according to the latest CME FedWatch survey, expect the Fed to hold rates where they are after the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, May 6-7.

For the June meeting, that percentage that say rates will stay the same drops to 60%.

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