March Data Mostly Beat Forecasts, but Tariff Shock Still Looms

  • May 1, 2025

All March economic data has now been reported. So, how did results fare compared to expectations?

As it turns out, March produced the highest number of economic "beats" so far this year (at 11).

There were 8 misses, which was better than February (9) and January (10) as well.

Much of the beats can be directly related to front-running the tariff disruptions. But it was good to see inflation come in better than expected on every metric. And employment , although slowing, is still holding steady so far.

Going forward from here on out, we’ll begin to get the data that includes the new policies. In my opinion, I don’t think we’ve even begun to see the effects of the slowdown. But the market is acting like it never happened. March Data Mostly Beat Forecasts, but Tariff Shock Still Looms