New Home Sales Show Signs of Life, but Breakout Hinges on Rate Cuts

  • April 23, 2025

March New Home sales came in better than expected at 724K (vs 684K estimates), as the 30-YR average fixed mortgage went from 6.76% to 6.65%.

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+50K new homes sold over last month (+7.4%), & +6.0% above last year.

Still about 30% below the October 2020 peak of +1,031K, but rates were also below 3% at that time.

The supply of new homes fell from 8.9 months of inventory in February to 8.3 months.

New Home Sales Show Signs of Life, but Breakout Hinges on Rate Cuts

Median sales price for new homes came in at $403,600 (-2% m/m, & -7.5% y/y). About 12% below the October 2020 peak of $460,300. New Home Sales Show Signs of Life, but Breakout Hinges on Rate Cuts

The monthly gains were attributed to the South (+58K), and the Midwest (+2K), while the West (-2K) and the Northeast (-8K) fell.

Good to see a little pick up in activity, but sales have been range bound for years and probably will remain that way until we get some relief in rates.