Clean energy tax credit proposal positive for Sunrun - Clear Street

  • May 16, 2025

Investing.com -- A new clean energy tax credit proposal from House Republicans could be a boost for solar provider Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN ) while dealing a setback to hydrogen producer Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG ), according to Clear Street.

In a note to clients on Friday, Clear Street said the House Republicans’ budget bill “was a positive for Sunrun,” as it preserves the 48E investment tax credit at its full 30% value through 2028.

They explained that this is four years earlier than the current 2032 expiration, followed by a gradual phase-down through 2031.

The bill could also accelerate demand for Sunrun’s subscription model if the 25D residential tax credit is eliminated after this year, as currently proposed, according to Clear Street.

The firm explained that Sunrun could mitigate potential future restrictions on tax credit transferability by using the IRS’s Safe Harbor provision.

The provision is said to allow qualification for credits if the company purchases at least 5% of a project’s fair market value in advance, such as solar modules or energy storage batteries.

However, the firm said the same proposal poses risks for Plug Power. Clear Street commented that the budget “was a negative for Plug Power” if the final version eliminates the 45V production tax credit for clean hydrogen facilities beginning construction after this year.

Clear Street added that Plug Power needs to “generate electrolyzers growth from international orders,” cut costs, and demonstrate improved gross margins to recover.