Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Market indexes were almost complete up today, with only the Dow posting a -0.02% loss from yesterday’s close, -10 points. The Nasdaq grew another +0.94% on the session and the S&P 500 split the difference: +0.47%. The small-cap Russell 2000 outpaced the field, +1.30% for the day. It’s still playing catchup with the other indexes, which are all +13% over the past month.

We started today’s pre-market in the red following the worst private-sector payroll report from ADP ADP in more than two years, but that can cut both ways. While it’s never a good thing for the economy to see negative employment numbers, if, for instance, we see nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also come in negative tomorrow, that will be the biggest sign in a long time that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates for the first time this year.

There’s no guarantee this will happen. For one thing, ADP and BLS numbers rarely match up exactly in real time (although subsequent revisions pull them closer together), and as we talk about below, we’re currently expecting north of 100K new jobs for June having been filled. For another, depending on what windfalls come from the tax bill passing or inflation from pending tariff policy, it may be the Fed remains reluctant to make any moves at all.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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