Treasuries Fall as Tariff Concerns Cloud Outlook, ISM Weaker

  • June 2, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries remained lower amid broad weakness in US assets on Monday, as worries over President Donald Trump’s tariff policy swirl at the start of a busy week for data on the health of the world’s largest economy.

The market was trading three to six basis points higher across the curve late morning in New York, as yields resumed climbing after a brief pullback on weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data for May. The ISM remains in contraction territory below 50.

Longer bond maturities led declines, driving the yield on 10-year debt up more than five basis points to 4.45%. The spread between five- and 30-year yields climbed to within a whisker of 100 basis points, a level it last closed above in 2021.

The moves came as US equities fell at the open and a gauge of the dollar approached its lowest level since 2023.

“We can certainly see why the long end of safe haven curves are unloved,” said Rabobank strategists including Richard McGuire, adding the US policy outlook is too cloudy to attract buyers for long-dated Treasuries.

Euro-area and UK bonds fell alongside Treasuries, with their yield curves also steepening as the long-end bore the brunt of the selling.

That reflects the risk of further trade salvos from the US president, after he announced he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25% to help protect American workers. Trump also said China had violated its trade agreement with the US.

Traders await comments from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 1pm, among a number of policymakers scheduled to speak in coming days. The week culminates with the closely-watched US employment report, due on Friday.

Vail Hartman, strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note that investors will monitor “any further confirmation that the Fed’s on-hold stance will be retained through the summer months and potentially into the autumn.”

What Bloomberg strategists say...

““With bond investors on strike and purchasing managers survey’s signaling more inflation, the current bend in the curve can persist Monday.”

— Alyce Andres, MLIV Rates Strategist, Chicago

Read here

Speaking earlier, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the US central bank can remain patient as it assesses risks to both inflation and unemployment.

(Adds ISM, Fed speaks, upddates yields, and BMO quote)